Scenario planning, also called ‘strategic thinking’ or ‘scenario analysis’, is a strategic planning method used by organizations to make flexible long-term plans. A critical function of leadership is to identify as many “futures” as possible and to prepare for it based on everything from human capacity development to resource allocation.

Why is Scenario Planning so EFFECTIVE?

  • Scenario Planning uses decision models, influence diagrams and decision trees to outline possible outcomes of expected and unexpected incidents
  • It’s used to generate graphical sensitivity analyses to test assumptions and gain insights into specific situations
  • It allows decision-makers anticipate hidden weaknesses and inflexibilities in organizations and methods.
  • Organizations can assign probabilities for inter-related uncertain events and make more informed decisions on strategy direction
  • It helps compare the risk and return(s) of competing alternatives
  • Helps with precise budget planning and resource allocation

Why a Customized Scenario Planning Workshop?

The Scenario Planning Workshop organized by NAKACHI Consulting is customized to specific organizations and allows participants to deal with the specific “futures” of their own organization while they master the software provided. This way, participant’s organizations have immediate results and the skills to continuously engage in future scenario planning. The course content is designed not only to give an overview of scenario planning methodology and strategic thinking, but it uses the organization as its case module, analyzing and computing scenarios unique to the organizations operating environment.

At the end of the workshop, participants would not only gain a working knowledge of Scenario Planning and Strategic thinking techniques; and the use of Scenario Planning software; they will also leave with a working plan and strategic direction for their organization outlining possible scenarios and mapping out a best course of action.

Sample Course Content:

Outline

  1. Decision Analysis overview
  • The decision analysis process
  • The software’s role in the process
  • Influence diagrams
  • Decision trees
  • Essential decision analysis results
  1. Developing Excel-linked Decision Models
  • Creating an influence diagram from a spreadsheet
  • Linking nodes to spreadsheets
  • Adding nodes to linked models
  • Changing node type

 

  1. Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis
  • Choosing appropriate ranges
  • Generating tornado diagrams
  • Understanding the results
  1. Incorporating Uncertainty
  • Discrete and continuous chance nodes
  • Conditional probabilities
  • Flexible spreadsheet modeling
  1. Decision Analysis Results
  • Risk Profiles
  • Policy Trees™
  • Value of Information and Control
  1. Managing Workspaces
  • The Workspace environment
  • Saving endpoint data
  • Best practices for review and version control
  1. Strategy Tables
  • When to use a strategy table
  • Defining strategies
  • Adding and removing decisions
  1. Multi-attribute Decision Models
  • Defining attributes
  • Defining an objective function

 

  1. Introduction to Multi-period Decision Models
  • Downstream decisions
  • Asymmetric decision trees
  • PAYG cash flow models
  • Calculating option value
  • Policy Summaries™
  • Policy Summary Filters
  1. Accelerating Models with Spreadsheet Conversion
  • Introduction to using software for Monte Carlo simulation
  • Extended case study
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